ASML sees customer interest in equipment orders through 2030

A longer view of AI equipment demand

ASML’s third-quarter results offer investors a new indicator of how far semiconductor manufacturers are looking ahead in response to AI-related investment. The Dutch equipment maker said some customers are expressing interest in placing orders for tools to be delivered in 2029 and 2030. The statement does not represent confirmed orders or a disclosed order backlog for those years, but it gives a view of demand planning that extends beyond the company’s usual near-term outlook.

Chief executive Christophe Fouquet attributed the stronger planning horizon to customers’ assessments of the scale and duration of investment linked to artificial intelligence. According to ASML, customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term forecasts for equipment demand. The company presented those forecasts as the main reason some buyers are considering equipment requirements for the end of the decade.

Profit exceeds consensus expectations

ASML reported third-quarter net sales of 11.66 billion euros and net profit of 4.96 billion euros. CNBC, citing LSEG consensus estimates, reported that analysts had expected net sales of 11.72 billion euros and net profit of 4.1 billion euros. Profit therefore exceeded the cited consensus estimate, while sales came in close to the estimate.

TechNews reported that third-quarter revenue increased 25.0% from the previous quarter to a record 11.662 billion euros. It said net profit rose 70.0% sequentially to 4.960 billion euros. The publication also reported gross profit of 6.7 billion euros, up 33.1% from the second quarter, and a gross margin of 57.5%, compared with 54% in the prior quarter.

The same report said basic earnings per share increased from 7.59 euros in the second quarter to 12.95 euros in the third quarter. Installed Base Management revenue reached 3.289 billion euros, up 19.1% sequentially, according to TechNews. The publication identified demand for productivity upgrades among customers as one factor supporting that activity and the gross-margin result.

Deliveries and cash position rise

ASML’s equipment deliveries also increased during the quarter. TechNews reported sales of 113 new lithography systems, compared with 86 in the preceding quarter, a sequential increase of 31.4%. Used lithography-system sales rose from five units to eight units, according to the same report.

At quarter end, cash and short-term investments stood at 12.735 billion euros, up from 7.582 billion euros at the end of the second quarter, TechNews said. That represented an increase of about 5.153 billion euros during the quarter. These figures describe ASML’s reported operating and financial position; they do not by themselves establish the timing or certainty of future customer orders.

Capacity remains the immediate constraint

The company’s comments on future demand were accompanied by a warning about supply. Fouquet said ASML’s planned supply for 2027 and 2028 would not fully meet customer demand. ASML is investigating ways to expand 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase it had previously forecast.

This capacity issue is particularly significant because ASML is the only company producing extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography machines. These systems are used by chipmakers including TSMC to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors. ASML also dominates the production of deep ultraviolet, or DUV, lithography machines, which are less advanced than EUV tools.

Several elements in the quarter frame the company’s current position:

• Some customers expressed interest in orders for 2029 and 2030, ASML said.
• Planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully satisfy customer demand, according to Fouquet.
• ASML is examining capacity expansion beyond its earlier 30% target for 2028.
• Samsung and TSMC committed during the quarter to use ASML’s High NA EUV systems.

High NA EUV enters the commercial picture

Samsung and TSMC, described by CNBC as the world’s two largest chipmakers, committed during the quarter to use ASML’s High NA EUV machines. High NA EUV is ASML’s next-generation lithography technology. Analysts cited by CNBC view it as important to the company’s future growth, though the supplied reporting does not provide deployment volumes, delivery dates, or revenue associated with those commitments.

The combination of customer interest in later-year orders and commitments around High NA EUV adds detail to the investment cycle ASML is tracking. Still, interest in future orders differs from a binding purchase commitment. ASML’s statements are therefore best read as a signal about customer planning visibility rather than as a quantified guarantee of sales through 2030.

Updated guidance for 2026

ASML narrowed its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to net sales between 44 billion euros and 45 billion euros. The lower end of its previous forecast had been 43 billion euros. TechNews reported that the company expects a full-year gross margin of about 56%.

For the fourth quarter, ASML forecast net sales of between 14.2 billion euros and 15.2 billion euros and a gross margin of about 57%, according to the reports. CNBC said the top end of the sales range was above the LSEG consensus estimate of 14.2 billion euros. ASML had already raised its sales and gross-margin outlook in July amid continuing demand for its tools.

China forecast unchanged

ASML maintained its forecast that China sales will account for 20% of its total business. The company faces restrictions on sales of EUV systems and certain DUV tools to China. CNBC also noted that a July report by The Information said an unnamed Chinese company had begun manufacturing an immersion DUV machine, citing people familiar with the matter. That report was not independently established in the supplied sources.

For companies and organisations in the Netherlands and across Europe that depend on semiconductor supply chains, ASML’s update reinforces that equipment availability may remain a practical planning issue through 2028. The interest reported for 2029 and 2030 also suggests that AI-related infrastructure decisions may require longer procurement and capacity assumptions, while the eventual volume and timing of orders remain uncertain.